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While NATO leaders reaffirm their commitment to supporting Ukraine, and the EU once again demonstrates the fragility of its unity under pressure from Budapest, Russia not only refuses to halt its aggression but is intensifying its actions - both on the battlefield and in the information war. The summit in The Hague did not result in a breakthrough: promises without guarantees, talk of «peace through strength», hints at dialogue with Putin - all amid the increasingly evident decline in American ambition. Simultaneously, Hungary is blocking new sanctions, and the Kremlin is launching sophisticated cyber operations, pretending the world has already accepted its presence.

On how the West’s strategy has changed, what risks stem from illusions about Russia, what the new wave of disinformation means, and why Europe must take the lead in deterring aggression, Sestry spoke with Keir Giles - a leading British expert on security and Russia, and Senior Consulting Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House.

Trump, NATO and Russia: an alliance on the brink of compromise and challenges

Maryna Stepanenko: «Peace through strength» was declared the main theme of the talks between Trump and Zelensky. After the meeting, the head of the White House hinted at dialogue with Putin and possible Patriot missile deliveries, but no firm commitments were made. In this context, how, in your opinion, could the formula «peace through strength» be applied to Russia, and how ready is the US to take on a real role in exerting pressure?

Keir Giles: We have always known that the only way to ensure European security is to provide Ukraine with the maximum possible support. So now we are dealing with the consequences of the policy of several successive US administrations that decided a different approach was needed. They are profoundly mistaken, and this causes enormous damage not only to European security and, of course, to Ukraine itself, but also to global security.

It is precisely such restraint and refusal to confront aggression that has led to the outbreak of global conflicts around the world

We are witnessing escalating situations, increasing casualties, and more wars breaking out - all because of this new American idea that confronting the aggressor is more dangerous than allowing the victim to be destroyed

The meeting between US and Ukrainian leaders once again raised the question: what model of support for Kyiv does Washington envisage? Are we speaking about a strategic partnership or rather about controlled containment of the war without long-term commitments?

There is a serious question as to whether a genuine strategic partnership with Donald Trump is even possible. After all, the United States sought partnership with Russia - and even that does not work particularly well, despite Trump being willing to do whatever it takes to give Russia everything it wants. Any country, any traditional friend, ally or partner of the United States must remember that the relationships upon which America’s former prosperity and security were built no longer have any real meaning for Trump. We are in an entirely new global environment.

This means that countries that take European security seriously, and therefore also the security and future of Ukraine, must step up to fill the gap left by the United States. This applies primarily to Europe’s neighbours, but also to liberal democracies around the world that have a shared interest in ending aggression.

Recently, there were rumours in Brussels that Russia might be removed from the list of NATO’s main threats, leaving only international terrorism. This seems strange considering that it is Russia that continues the war in Europe and destabilises the situation globally, from Africa to the Middle East. In the final communiqué, Russia was recognised as a long-term threat to the entire Alliance. However, do you generally observe an attempt by the West to «normalise» the aggressor?

The United States has long pretended that Russia is not a problem, and we should not rule out the possibility that NATO, in its desperate efforts to retain the US in the alliance, may go along with this rhetoric.

We have already seen signs that NATO is prepared to take extraordinary measures to placate Trump: take, for example, the letter written to him by Secretary General Mark Rutte, deliberately composed in «Trump’s language». It must have been extremely difficult to imitate the verbal expressions of a five-year-old child in order to accomplish this.

Therefore, we cannot confidently predict how far NATO might go to ensure continued US participation in the Alliance. But European countries must harbour no illusions about whether Russia has ceased to be a threat, regardless of the efforts of the current US administration to convince itself otherwise.

The resilience of regimes and the fragility of decisions: what will determine the duration of the war

Despite sanctions, battlefield losses and growing isolation, Putin’s regime is holding firm - at least on the surface. Given your expertise, what is the source of this system’s resilience today, and what could destabilise it from within?

There is little chance that the Russian regime will be brought down from within, as it appears to be a regime with which the overwhelming majority of the Russian population is entirely satisfied.

Ultimately, it is a self-sufficient system in which those who have gained wealth and power within it have no interest in its destruction. Therefore, there is currently no reason to believe that Russia will deviate from its aggressive course, despite the long-term damage and the catastrophic consequences for the country’s economy and its population.

Assuming the end of the war is neither imminent nor hopelessly distant, what factors, in your view, might break the current deadlock? You have outlined internal collapse as unlikely, but could it be external pressure or something else we have yet to articulate?

The answer to this question has always been and will remain the same: European countries must provide Ukraine with maximum physical and financial support to help it defeat Russia, by any means available. Not necessarily on the front lines, but also through other forms of support.

European countries are slowly realising that their future is closely linked to the future of Ukraine, and that they can no longer rely on the United States as the primary sponsor of these efforts. But Europe will need to do much more for Ukraine to continue holding the front line and repelling the aggressor.

Russia and Belarus have announced the «Zapad-2025» exercises. In the past, such manoeuvres have served as a prelude to aggression. Is there currently a risk of this scenario being repeated, and is the West capable of responding adequately amid political fragmentation?

People always become anxious ahead of the «Zapad» exercises - this has been the case long before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and even before the annexation of Crimea. And yes, it always creates an opportunity to do something unrelated to the training itself.

But at this stage, when there is already an intense conflict ongoing, should we consider «Zapad» as just another element of battlefield deception, part of a broader deception within the ongoing war, rather than the start of a new one?

Of course, Western intelligence services will be closely monitoring who is doing what and where in the context of the Russian-Belarusian exercises - even in this new reality, where a significant part of Russia’s ground forces is already deeply engaged in Ukraine and has limited capacity for operations in other regions.

«The invisible front»: how Russia is waging war against the West in the information space

Mr Giles, you yourself became the target of a new, sophisticated phishing attack by Russian hackers - disguised as an employee of the US State Department. The attackers used Gmail’s «delegate access» function to gain hidden access to your inbox, bypassing two-factor authentication. This operation likely required weeks of effort. In this context, how has Russia’s tactic in the information war changed over the past year? And what does this say about the new level of threat?

I am confident the entire operation took far longer - several weeks just for the execution, so the planning stage must have begun much earlier.

On the one hand, this new technique, this new approach to gaining access to people’s email, indicates that Russia is being forced to develop more refined methods because its previous, more primitive attempts have failed. For many years, there have been numerous attempts to hack my email, some laughably primitive, others highly complex and sophisticated.

But on the other hand, this new method highlights that we are all vulnerable

The way the suspected Russian attackers exploited a built-in Gmail feature available in every user’s account to create, essentially, a «side door» that bypasses all our usual security measures (two-factor authentication, mobile codes, confirmation requests) shows that no one is truly safe.

Until companies such as Google, Microsoft and others fix this loophole, it is inevitable that this technique will be used much more broadly, not only against targets like me.

This summer, Europe witnessed a wave of fake messages sent on behalf of Western governments, social media manipulations, and interference in election campaigns in individual EU member states. How exactly is Russia trying to influence public opinion in Europe today, and which narratives is it primarily promoting?

Some of Russia’s narratives are entirely consistent over time, while others are tied to specific political events. It is important to remember that the campaigns conducted by Russia are ongoing and are not limited to dates on the democratic calendar.

Russia is constantly working to undermine the forces that unite Europe: solidarity among European states, societal cohesion, trust in institutions and, above all, support for Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression

These campaigns are permanent. In addition, there are targeted, time-sensitive efforts aimed at influencing the outcomes of specific democratic processes in specific countries at specific times.

Sanctions fatigue: Is the West’s pressure on the Kremlin still effective?

In addition to the NATO summit, another event important for Ukraine took place - the European Council summit. There, both a new sanctions package against the Russian Federation and support for Ukraine’s negotiation process with the EU were discussed - both initiatives were blocked by Hungary. Sanctions - also by Slovakia. To what extent do such actions undermine trust in EU unity, and what self-defence mechanisms against internal sabotage does the EU need?

This is yet another illustration of how consensus-based organisations - NATO and the EU - are vulnerable to the lowest common denominator. If there is a saboteur or a disruptor within, it can effectively paralyse the entire organisation, especially in the case of the EU, which is primarily a trade organisation rather than a structure designed to address geopolitical conflicts.

In many ways, the very structure of Europe’s supranational institutions does not meet the challenges they currently face

Nevertheless, it is impressive how far they have come in maintaining unity and a shared understanding of the importance of supporting Ukraine. I hope and believe that it will once again be possible to find a workaround to move forward, even without the cooperation of countries such as Hungary, Slovakia or others.

‍What does it signify that the United States currently does not intend to increase sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation from its side?

Well, the message from the United States has been very clear. At present, they are partners with Russia and are seeking to impose on Ukraine the terms of capitulation dictated by Moscow. This is the reality with which Ukraine and Europe must now contend.

And it is precisely the adaptation to this reality, and the speed with which it occurs, that will determine the future security of the entire continent.

Cover photo: Office of the President of Ukraine

This project is co-financed by the Polish-American Freedom Foundation under the «Support Ukraine» programme, implemented by the Education for Democracy Foundation

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Over the past week, former President Donald Trump has mentioned various figures regarding the military aid the United States has provided to Ukraine over three years of war. He has cited amounts such as $500 billion and $350 billion.

According to estimates by the "Economists for Ukraine" group, the military aid transferred by the U.S. to Ukraine amounts to $18.3 billion. An additional $32.6 billion represents direct budgetary support in the form of reimbursements, which was distributed, among other means, through the World Bank. Meanwhile, the U.S. government has assessed the total volume of its military aid to Ukraine at $65.9 billion.

— We analyzed a vast amount of publicly available data and identified the reasons for discrepancies in the reported figures, — explains Anastassia Fedyk. — When considering only military aid, our experts assessed all the equipment and technology Ukraine was set to receive, taking into account their condition, age, and usability. It makes a significant difference whether equipment was newly manufactured by American companies last year or if it had been out of use for over a decade and was marked for decommissioning. Evaluating all such equipment at the same value is incorrect.

For instance, while the U.S. Department of Defense reports that it has transferred $31 billion worth of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine (under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the U.S. president to provide military aid from Pentagon stockpiles without congressional approval), the majority of this equipment was outdated and no longer in use by the U.S. Armed Forces. According to expert estimates, the actual value of this aid is around $12.5 billion.

Another crucial aspect to consider when calculating expenses is how much the United States has gained in profit or other benefits by providing aid to Ukraine.

— We plan to analyze this aspect in detail in our next study and evaluate the specific economic benefits the U.S. has gained from military and financial support to Ukraine. This includes increased profits for the defense industry and new contracts for American companies, — notes Anastassia Fedyk.

Scholars from the University of California, Berkeley, the Stockholm School of Economics, Minerva University, and the AI for Good Foundation worked on the report for approximately two months. "The main goal of this study is to prevent disinformation and the spread of false data regarding U.S. aid to Ukraine. It also aims to demonstrate, using concrete figures, that European countries and the United Kingdom have provided Ukraine with equipment, weapons, and other types of aid in proportions comparable to the U.S. contribution," Fedyk explains. Notably, the European Union estimates the total volume of its financial, military, and humanitarian assistance at $145 billion, while the United Kingdom has provided nearly $16 billion.

Why, then, does former U.S. President Donald Trump exaggerate the aid figures so drastically? According to Anastassia Fedyk, this may be an attempt to negotiate more favorable terms in upcoming resource agreements or a strategy to discredit the previous administration by portraying its policies as unprofessional and wasteful. Specifically, Trump may be trying to create the impression that his predecessors neglected American citizens while allegedly spending "enormous" amounts to support Ukraine, which is suffering from the war with Russia.

— That is why it was important for us to present accurate data — specific amounts, figures, and facts — to show the real state of affairs. We wanted to prove that American citizens were not deprived of access to social or government services due to aid to Ukraine, explains Anastassia Fedyk.

On the contrary, many people gained jobs, and companies involved in the production and supply of aid expanded their manufacturing capacities and contributed to budget revenues

In her opinion, the results of this analysis will also be useful for Ukraine, as they will allow for negotiations on equal terms, provide a better understanding of the real value of the aid received, and prevent manipulations regarding its scale.

The researchers from "Economists for Ukraine" also analyzed allegations of corruption and possible embezzlement of funds coming from the U.S.

They found that the level of corruption associated with the use of American aid is among the lowest compared to all other countries that have received support from the United States

— Accusations of corruption can harm Ukraine’s reputation as an aid recipient. However, thorough audits indicate that Ukraine has handled the provided funds responsibly. Moreover, budgetary assistance was granted in the form of expense reimbursements based on receipts. This should be emphasized to prevent the formation of a negative image, which some try to impose, notes Professor Fedyk.

In her view, American citizens' attitudes toward Ukraine have not deteriorated, but many still do not fully understand the actual scale of aid provided to Ukraine. Americans continue to support Ukraine and consider their assistance important and beneficial. Therefore, it is crucial to spread truthful information to avoid misunderstandings, even when high-ranking officials fuel such misunderstandings.

Economists for Ukraine is a non-partisan economic think-tank, part of the AI for Good Foundation, a US 501(c)(3) Public Charity whose mission is to promote economic and community resilience. The Economists for Ukraine network includes more than 400 economists representing the world’s leading academic, scientific, and economic institutions.

Tetiana Vyhovska: What is «Women Leaders for Ukraine»? What does the organisation do?

Olga Luc: It is an international community, a union of women from business, politics, as well as those working in the social sphere, such as NGOs and charitable foundations. The president is Iryna Papusha, and the members are women from all over the world. We are currently present in 19 countries, in 32 cities, including Japan, the USA, Spain, Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and, of course, Ukraine. This is a network of women, which is based not only on information exchange, contacts and mentorship but also on the development of leadership with the ability to influence social and political changes. It also represents women at various platforms, forums and conferences, notably the Davos conference, which is worth mentioning as the most renowned.

We organise both informal and formal meetings in the countries our participants come from. We work on developing women and empowering them with the necessary skills to know how and what to do to achieve their goals.

Of course, men are also important. They are part of this community, providing support or, as beautifully put in English, «allies». However, the main focus is on women, providing them with opportunities to express themselves, develop and establish important contacts, thereby building the future - their own and Ukraine’s. Women’s contribution is not only important now - it will be crucial for Ukraine's reconstruction, as a significant burden truly rests on their shoulders.

Many women have now moved abroad with their children, where they care for their families and must also decide where to work and what to do: perhaps start their own business or look for a new path for development. These skills will be invaluable in the future.

If women want to return to Ukraine and participate in its reconstruction, they must know how to do so

- What interesting and important ideas have «Women Leaders for Ukraine» already implemented?

- I will start with two projects particularly close to my heart due to their immense power. The first was implemented jointly with «The Kids of Ukraine Foundation». This is an organisation from the United Kingdom and the USA that supports initiatives helping children and their families overcome the traumas of war. We are partners of this foundation and support activities in the field of humanitarian aid provision as well as organising SviTY trips.

We focus on providing psychological support to children through sport, play and activity. We have organised many summer camps in the Carpathians and other locations, where children can not only spend time in the fresh air and distract themselves from a challenging reality but also receive psychological support.

The second project is implemented cyclically together with the International Coaching Federation. This renowned organisation unites certified coaches (self-development trainers - Edit.) from all over the world. It creates a space for profound and honest conversations, enabling one to see themselves and their abilities from a different perspective. It is a great opportunity not only to interact with someone from another region or country but also to discover new ways of achieving one’s goals. It helps women move forward confidently, better understand their needs and unlock their potential.

Our activities span various directions. For example, we have the «Ukrainian Award of Inclusivity», which recognises female leaders driving change for Ukraine. Additionally, we actively influence legislative processes. Ukraine is on its way to the EU, and we all believe this will happen - but it requires pressure from different sides. From our perspective, it is crucial for women to be involved, ensuring that negotiations are not held without women. As I have already mentioned, women will be a vital group for Ukraine’s future, supporting all processes - economic, business and legislative.

Our community is open, and if any reader has an idea or wishes to propose something, we are always happy to welcome new participants.

- Is participation in projects and events free?

- Yes, all expenses are covered by our organisation, sponsors and partners. So if you are a member of our community and wish to participate, after filling out a questionnaire and other required documents, you can join the «Women Leaders for Ukraine» projects.

- You have also participated in the «Coaching Project». Why is coaching important for a female leader, and what value did this project bring to you?

- Coaching plays a key role in developing leadership qualities. It helps delve deep into one’s potential, revealing facets of personality that we usually overlook or are afraid to acknowledge. It is an opportunity to understand fears, talents and strengths, as well as admit limitations. This process is significant because only when we accept ourselves as we are can we become true leaders - those who inspire others, build trust and create a space for team development.

Moreover, coaching gives us the courage to be vulnerable, not hiding weaknesses behind masks and roles. It is a space where we can allow ourselves to be authentic - finding strength in this authenticity, which is essential for leadership. A true leader is not one who knows all the answers but one who is open to learning, growth and, importantly, acknowledging weaknesses. Only then can a leader create an environment where others feel supported and can be the best versions of themselves.

In my case, a coaching session helped organise my strengths, which I previously did not even recognise. It also allowed me to view coaching differently. It is not only about discovering competencies or areas needing improvement but also about finding the answer to why I do what I do, what my motivation is, as this is what gives me the energy to bring plans to life.

- You are implementing remarkable projects, but this is volunteering work. What do you do apart from «Women Leaders for Ukraine»? Perhaps you have a business?

- I work at the American bank Bank of New York Mellon in Wrocław. My position is Director of Client Service at BNY (Investment Manager Relationships). I do not have a business of my own, but I am passionate about women empowerment and female leadership. It would be wonderful to create something of my own, and «Women Leaders for Ukraine» provides me with the knowledge to achieve this.

Regarding banking - it is also an intriguing space for women. Currently, it remains predominantly a male-dominated field: the higher the positions, the more men there are. I ask myself: why is this the case? What can be done to change this, enabling women to also reach certain career heights if they wish?

- On your website, I found a questionnaire that needs to be filled in to receive support for an idea. Is this only for your members or for everyone?

- For everyone. If you have an idea for a personal project and its implementation, we are happy to listen and review it. The next step would be a conversation to help us gain a deeper understanding of your concept and its potential.

- Should this be a social or business project? What interesting ideas have you already supported?

- We are ready to consider any ideas. We evaluate their impact on Ukraine and how they might improve the situation for women

Projects do not necessarily have to be focused on Ukraine; they can concern women globally, and we impose no restrictions on their specifics. We encourage submissions of ideas related to women’s development, equality, and so forth. These can include social or business projects, legislative initiatives - anything that will have a positive impact and become a driver of change.

What interesting projects we have supported? «Kids of Ukraine Charity Foundation!» Children in war are the most vulnerable. It is also worth mentioning technological start-ups and new products. Various conferences and local initiatives have also been supported. Recently, we organised a forum in Kyiv, bringing together female leaders to discuss women’s development and their impact on politics, society, and business.

As a non-EU country, Ukraine receives fewer resources from Europe. Therefore, it is important to think creatively and utilise potential, particularly in Poland and other countries with large Ukrainian diasporas.

- And cultural projects? For instance, I created a Ukrainian library in Katowice, collecting about a thousand books. I also have a publishing house in Ukraine and many ideas for publishing works by Ukrainian authors in Polish and promoting Ukrainian literature...

- That is a wonderful project. Culture is indeed vital in the struggle. The war has made Ukrainian culture more visible abroad, and this is an opportunity to showcase it to the world, offering others a chance to discover our talented authors, such as Lina Kostenko, for example.

Burned artworks, looted churches and destroyed monuments - these are the consequences of barbaric acts still committed by Russian forces in Ukraine. The deliberate destruction of cultural assets is considered a war crime and is damage inflicted not only on the heritage of one nation but also on the whole world.

- What are your future plans, and what are your ambitions?

- The main goal is expansion and the further development of our community with a focus on deeper collaboration. Moving forward, we will concentrate on political and social projects, supporting legislation, gender equality and diversity issues, and participating in political discussions and conferences where women’s voices are essential.

We are now summing up the year to understand which projects received the best feedback, created real change, had a positive impact and are worth continuing. Thus, the «Kids of Ukraine Charity Foundation» and «Coaching Project» will definitely be continued, as they are of great scale and significance. Additionally, «Resilience Ship» - the promotion of Ukrainian resilient leadership globally.

We hope that many people have interesting ideas and are eager to act. It is important to maintain interest in Ukraine because, as is known, this interest has slightly diminished. We aim for Ukraine to remain visible in various aspects - political, social, and so on. This will be our mission.

Photographs: FB Women Leaders for Ukraine